UAS News Podcast — 2014-06-04
Transcript
Music Welcome to the next installment of the UAS News Podcast Series where we interview news makers and discuss the news and applications relevant to the global unhandled technologies community. I'm your program host Patrick Deegan and let's say hello and welcome to our co-host Mr. Gene Robinson. Hello Patrick.
Still hail hearty and mostly vertical. How are you sir?
Still recovering from the spectacle. It was the small one that just showed up. It was the really big shoe. Yeah, that was a lot of work.
Basically, it's a lot of work. Head down. You just got to keep going. It was good.
I thought it was really good. I'm a little jealous because I don't get to listen to the presentations as closely as I would like to. People were saying there was some good information there. I hate to tell you, you missed a chunk.
I mean I was lucky enough to get to see most of it. And there, I got to tell you Patrick, there's some talent. There was some real talent at that show and skill. I was amazed at the people and the caliber of people that were there.
It was pretty mind-boggling. It is. But you know, I was going to ask you about your takeaway on this and it's kind of jumping up front. But I will say that looking at it from my perspective, it really reinforces kind of the, let's say, false economy idea for me because there's some really smart people out here using these systems and they're out there making money and they're doing it.
Which just surprises me. It really surprises me when I think about how people are working in silos, how people that are, let's say, experts and professionals in the field get no press, get no recognition, totally ignored by, let's say, the DOD industrial lobby when they're, oh, we're looking for good uses and commercial uses and all the rest of it. And it's like, I mean, you tell me that there's not some good gender out there to work with. Well,
I can tell you from personal experience and talking to the people that were there on the floor and that were there just to attend the show, there's some patents in that room.
There are inventions that are waiting to hatch. And those people in that room had a whole bucketful of them. And that's what really, my takeaway from it was is that I thought I was pretty smart about this whole deal. But let me tell you what, there are some very, very smart people that are coming up through the ranks and have some really, really good ideas.
And it's going to be the PC.com cell phone boom all over again. Right. Well, you know, that's another thing with the parallel, you know, people say, oh, the Internet, you know, what happened to the Internet?
I mean, I think it's kind of the same deal. You had the Internet that was kind of, let's say, in the government mindset where it was even between universities and research institutions and all the rest of it. Right. And we're kind of like, you know, that now and really when the spotlight, and I think that's a good way to clarify because a lot of people go, oh, Patrick E.
is a commercial guy. We've got to clarify that. I am a commercial guy. But more than the commercial guy, I'm kind of a small business guy.
So let's clarify because for somebody to clarify the commercial nomenclature for UAS, this is what it's turning into. And you'll see this at symposiums around the country. There's another one going on here, the California UAS Center of Excellence meeting. Commercial is not Northrop Grumman, general of politics, bubbling and Errol Weierman getting into the business sector.
That's not commercial. No. That's, but I can't say what that is because this is a family show. But, you know, $4,500 an hour, $7,500 an hour, $3,500 an hour.
Hey, if anyone's listening from the DOV Legacy vendors, that's not going to work. I can buy a, you know, the 172, fly around all week, you know, have a party, paint a disco ball from it for a lot less money. So that's not going to work. I guarantee you, I mean, I've got my license and if somebody were paying me $2,500 an hour on a regular basis, I would willingly go back up in a 172 and fly around.
That's, there's hands down, that would be the way to go because there would be money to be made that way. Well, then I would easily go out and get my pilot license. At that, I'm not going around for $12 an hour, you know, but $4,500 an hour you got me, you know, $4,000 an hour, $7,500 an hour, I'm all over. Guys would be lining up, GA would explode again.
You know, they're having, there's a congressional panel on why the bottom's falling out of GA. I mean, you know, heads up there, people are making $12 an hour. It's the same thing, you go to the Paris Air Show, these big air shows, you go out on the flight line, the chalets, you know, these big aircraft companies, they're making money. The people that aren't making money are the operators.
Why aren't the operators making money? Hmm, hmm, I wonder what that is. You know, I know what we'll do, we'll do a study. We're going to, we'll get a committee together, blue ribbon panel, we'll hang out for 10 years, maybe we can get a grant to do that.
Anyway, the commercial thing is, you know, back to the clarification of that, you got to, it's a small business thing. It's not going to work. I'm sorry, you know, it sounds good, $35,000 an hour, but that's not going to work. We're going to need small commercial guys.
Those are the guys that are really going to make this thing work. Those are the guys that are going to really do the innovation. And I want to make one example, and that is the drone deploy guys. Did you see their demonstration?
Yeah, sure did. I mean, that's one of the holy grails that people have been working on for years. And here you've got these kids who came from South Africa, you know, they came to Silicon Valley, which I tell people is like kind of like what, you know, it's like on the Hollywood of technology. You know, it's the dream factory.
People come out here and try and, you know, they bring their dreams. Everybody else is telling them they're crazy all around the world. They come to Silicon Valley and they find people to help them develop their system. And it is kind of funny.
I love when the military rolls in here. It's kind of like a secretive deal, but people aren't really even that interested in working for the military. It's too slow. It's too, you know, regimented.
There's a packing order, you know. You know, to bring something to, let's say, fruition takes five to 10 years, and by then the technology is, you might as well just be a stick and a, you know, a stone wheel or something. So it's a whole different thing out there. But anyway, you know, people go, oh, it's the drone deployer thing.
Well, you can go to the S.U.S. News YouTube channel, and then you can go to the S.U.S. News slideshare, and you can look at the presentations. I don't have them all up yet, and all the videos aren't up yet, but you can watch the videos from all of the presentations.
So it's kind of like being there, and you weren't there, and you didn't get to network, which I think is kind of the crux of the biscuit with the show. I think the networking part of it is where the gold is. Would you agree or disagree?
I mean, I agree that I've got, I'm still trying, I mean, it's been a month, and I am still trying to make, you know, time to get the contacts that I've already started working with and started developing things with, and I haven't even gotten to the bottom of the stack of cards yet. I haven't even gotten to the top of the stack of the cards yet. It's just surprising to me, and I can't add it, it's like a blur. I'm like, wow, there's lots of things I've got to follow up on.
There's lots of people already that want to come back next year. I think that for myself, it's kind of hard to gauge how successful the show was, besides that we had the manufacturers of basically all of the, let's say, business grade or consumer grade people were there. Professional grade. Yeah, they were there.
They were talking about their products, the technology was there, people. And I think we had some frank discussions too. I mean, this isn't a flesh deal. You get up there and the people that are in the room, the caliber of the folks that are in the room, the majority of the folks in the room, have been doing this for years.
And it's still, that's another thing that cracks me up that needs to be dispelled. I mean, I think we did allude to this in some of the earlier shows, with the snake oil. And I mean, the experts are coming out of the woodwork, man. And at first I was like, well, these are giving people this information.
Now I just find it sad. I really do. It's just a big, you know. You're correct.
You're correct. Oh, you know, we're the only qualified people to talk to the FAA about rulemaking for slowing the aircraft systems at business use. And it's like, oh, did you run a business?
Well, no. You know, have you flown a system for a living?
Well, no. Well, then how are you qualified to talk about it?
That's one of my big beats with this whole industry, the people that are representing us, especially the United States, the people that are representing us at IKO, totally unqualified. Somebody that's not a pilot has never owned a company, never flown a system for a living, and doesn't even follow along from what I hear. So that's representation. You got any representation on the arc, same deal, you know.
Not pilots, never owned a company, never flew something for a living, never had to write the checks to run the company. And people wonder why this has taken so long. And then the other deal is on the hothead. I bring this up, you know, this person is totally unqualified.
Oh, my God, how could you say that? Well, track record speaks for itself. It's not my opinion. Well, someone once said that there are some inconvenient crews out there.
And unfortunately, the industry has taken off to the point where we've got some inconvenient crews out there. And you pointed out one earlier that right now, large systems, you can't operate a large system for less than you can operate a 172. And that's where the small business comes in. And they build a solution that works just as well, VLOS, and provides a solution to a given problem.
And they do so economically. You get down into the $25 to $50 to even $70 to $80 an hour. That's what you would pay a good plumber, a working mechanic. And people will pay those kinds of prices.
Yeah, and so you think about, even if you were to say, okay, I want a professional, I'm going to go out there and make $850 a day, you know, or something like that. That makes sense. That business model makes sense. It's a skewed economy.
You know, the DOD, Taliban asymmetrical warfare overlay on the American people is just not going to happen. And you've got General Matanik out there. We're going to be racing predators to everyone. Oh, that's going to make people comfy.
You know, pretend you're MOLA in the tribal areas of Pakistan. It'll be great. You'll love it. No, they're not going to go for that.
It's not going to work. It's not a sustainable model. All of the business forecasts, I wouldn't even, I had it as funny as I had to. I don't know if I want to mention him by name, but Matan comes to a meeting and he was asking me about some numbers that were in a report that everybody points to.
And he says, first thing he's like, you know, how do you stand behind those numbers? Whoa, buddy. Well, hold the bus there. I don't stand behind any of those numbers.
Those numbers are totally made up. All the reports that are out there, all the forecasts that are out there are all total nonsense, telephone numbers. You might as well crack open the DC phone book and start pointing and tell people those are the numbers. You cannot support any numbers that anybody's come up with in any forecast, and I don't care.
I should tell people, you show me in your forecast where sequestration was, you know, a year out, and they don't have it. So those numbers are totally unsupportable. It's a fairy tale. And the only way that those numbers are going to work is if you've got control, and it's raining money in here, and you've got control of the regulations.
And that's exactly what happened. You saw my presentation. I was the first going there. But, you know, ASTM is totally trying to lock it up with their MIL-STD 2001 manuals for your systems and the ISO-like certification that is designed to lock, bomb, and pop out.
RTCA, the Human Factors, the old air expert, he's 25 years military, Human Factors. Small people are just going to have to get with the program and spend the money. So that's the only way they can support those types of outlays. And it's still unsupportable because people just go to the 117, and then we get to miss the technology boat.
You know, and that's kind of endemic to the government model. You know, even Jim Williams, and you know, bless his heart, he came out there to the, what I would consider a hostile room. The lion's den. The lion's den, so to speak.
And, you know, when he was discussing the exemption door being open, he made the statement that God's just going to take a lot of money, and it's going to be one of the bigger players, and you're going to have to wait for them to get done with it, and then you can apply. I know, I think it's a lot of colorful analogies, but it's a family show. Well, you know, that kind of completely rubbed me the wrong way because that's not how America made it where it is today. And it just kind of wrangled me, but that's just me.
No, no, you're, you know, it's the same thing I think about it that way, and I think about it, it's like, what happened? What happened here?
It almost seems like you're kind of old-fashioned when you say things like that, you know. I don't know how it is in Texas. Here in California, you're a little bit more progressive, and you say something like that, and people are like, oh, you know, that's old-fashioned. But I still agree with that notion that it's a small business that drives the economy, and it's a small business that drives innovation.
And unfortunately, you know, all I can say for the Europeans is thank God the DOD vendors never got a foothold over there. They don't even know how lucky they are. Well, a lot of them do know how lucky they are because we got to hear from them at the Expo, and we have a large, large international contingent came over, and these guys in Europe are making money. There's a legal on-ramp.
It's the people, oh, it's kind of hard, so it's not really. And they're out there, and they're legally making money, and they're building businesses, and they're building market share. Someone was flying at airports, you know, oil and gas work, film, mapping, GIS. I mean, it's really a kick in the chest.
It's like, how come they can do that and we can't do that? Well, I'm going to come right on a limb. I've been at this for like 10 years, and I know why we can't do it. We can't do it because of special interests.
That was AOPA right off the bat. They told the FAA, you got to do something about this. These guys want to use it for commercial purposes. You got to shut this down.
And they did. And I think it was kind of interesting, too, that was that amicus brief from Nick Sattapini, Mr. Dunell-Hallin. That guy's got zero credibility in my book.
He read a bumper sticker somewhere, and that's quaint. But at the same time that he was, you know, working at the FAA, and I believe he was a flight standards guy, you know, the FAA was doctoring the numbers, the safety numbers for the S. And if anybody would like to talk about that, I'm available. You can get in touch with me, and I'll show you the documentation where the NTSB contractor basically came out and said all of the numbers that FAA had, worthless.
They were cooking the books. So as far as I'm concerned, Sattapini, no credibility. And I know he's kind of like the godfather of this movement on the FAA side. But let's talk about some cooked books, and then we'll talk about credibility.
I don't believe that these things that consist or are that dangerous, let's say, or immense to the N.A.S. And I have paperwork where the FAA agrees with that. We all know that it's going on out there. We've been beating this drum for years.
It's all emperors' new clothes. But they're out there, and they're flying around. And that leads us to the next, you know, talk, this is 333 exemption thing that's been all over the news, and everybody and their brothers yelling for it. The funny thing about that exemption, if people haven't seen it, is everybody's talking about it, and, you know, it's like the film and industry sector, oil and gas, and power lines.
Some of those things are moneyed and politically connected sectors. Have you seen any of those news stories, Gene?
As a matter of fact, I've read a couple of the exemption applications so far, and you're correct. One thing that kind of occurs to me was discussing this with a mutual friend of ours. And there is a very real possibility that this could be a grand delaying tactic as well, because then the FAA can say, certainly we're looking at all options, and we're exploring exemptions, and we have exemptions in house now that are under review. I think the proof in the pudding is going to be when one of those exemptions is granted.
However, you know, if it happens in two or three months, then there's some potential there for moving forward. But at this point, it gives them a talking point. They can say, oh, we're reviewing them, and they can review them for the next seven years. Right.
And I've been reviewing all the other documents for the last, you know, eight or ten years. Well, and the other deal is, is even if this stuff comes back now, if they go to the current UAS Arctic and then ask the people there about these exemptions, I have a feeling these exemptions, it's going to be a pretty high hurdle to jump. Now, I will say I did do an interview for the National Journal, and they were asking me about some of the exemptions,
and I do think that the movie people, if there's anyone that really is standing in line here, that's a credible exemption or has a chance of completing the movie and TV industry.
One, you're in a closed set environment. Two, there are special provisions for them for their airspace. Three, they're very well politically connected. So if anyone stands a chance, I think they do.
And I will say, you know, it's again, we've got Amazon, Google, and Facebook hired K-Street lobbyists. They're working this thing like a rib bone. It's kind of interesting that they're not going through, let's say, any of the established unnamed aircraft system advocates. That's very telling, very, very telling to me that they're going around them.
And investing their own money. But also, so the Triton, I hear, is going for the exemption also. I would say that politically connected users are probably standing a better chance. But in all of that, even if you did the pipeline surveys and you did the movies and all the rest of that, how are you going to guarantee no flyaways?
How are you going to guarantee the safe operations? All of those applications like real estate, I know that real estate people are making noise. How are you going to get an exemption for that?
I mean, you're just going to have to exempt a whole class of unnamed aircraft for that to work. You have to. You have to?
And as soon as you give the movie people the, you know, and here's the heads up, do you give the movie people an exemption? Why aren't you going to give the real estate people an exemption?
You know, the movie people fly in suburban and urban areas. I mean, they fly around in downtown LA. What about the people on the ground?
What about people in buildings? Usually they're heavier ships. What about flyaways?
They're pre-programmed aircraft. You know, so what's the difference?
There's going to be another opportunity for them to produce a double standard that is going to just make life unbearable for them. Well, it's going to, you know, it's like an analogy where they ran out in the minefield. I know it's time to come back. And it's really very, I mean, it's just that every step is a potential misstep.
And so, you know, I don't know what they're going to do. I'm glad I'm not in that position. I think that there's been a lot of it down the way here where, you know, again, it's easier to say no than step on another mine mine. And there's mine mines aplenty.
I look at this, it's crazy. It's crazy. What's going on is just nuts. You know, another example of some of the writing in the AMA that I don't understand this, and maybe you could give me some insight.
There was a commercial ad show in the AMA that was showing people how to fly UAS. I mean, maybe they were doing it for free, but it's a commercial show, and you're teaching people how to fly UAS. And you're, you know, they're selling them there or selling the idea there. I mean, is that too strange to you, or am I just off base, or what?
Well, you know, I would have to admit that I was a little puzzled when, you know, as you know, I put on the Search and Rescue workshop there, which was just a resounding success all the way around. We had people standing in the halls and standing room only. But there were some, you know, high-level AMA guys out there that wanted to go to that workshop and see, you know, what we were doing out there in Search. And this goes, again, it goes so far and away from the recreational end of what the AMA is supposed to be espousing.
So there is a paradigm shift occurring with them, and I would imagine that they're going to have to change to keep up. Yeah, you know, that's another thing that dawned on me the other day. I went to the hobby shop the other day looking for some props and just even going there and talking to people, the attitude, that kind of pecking order thing, the I'm smarter than you, the I'm the hobby guy thing, it really was kind of galvanized how far we've come away from the RC hobby thing. We're just, we are miles away from that.
I mean, I like the AMA and I think that they're doing good work or whatever, but you know what, just because you can fly an RC plane in those days, we're over. I think that that ship has already left the dock, and it's over. That's over. I mean, it may be a nice place to start, but the professionalism that's needed and the RC hobby world and attitude and all the rest of that, that's, there's far separation.
And so I don't know, I do see that, you know, I think it's good, I do think that there's some good things, I really think that AMA is playing the fire. If you, if they think they're going to have, you know, 55-pound commercial or DOD systems flying at their AMA fields and people are going to do training there, you're talking about two totally different animals. You're talking, you are talking about an apple and you are talking about an orange. Concern?
Well, no, you know, I do. Of course, I'm a little prejudiced. I am a pilot, you know, so I have always thought that if you're going to go out into the world and you're going to expose people to your aircraft, you need to have training above and beyond what you can get when you take your parts flyer or your TigerMalt out there, you know, and hey, you can, you know, zoom in and out of goal posts, that's great. But you need to have a little bit more training than that, I think, to take it out into the world, especially as a commercial operation.
We've always said that, you know, that there's going to be some additional training required. So, you know, let's just move on with it. Let's get going with it and we accede to that and we know the direction it needs to go. So what's the problem?
How come we're not doing it? Well, I think it's another mistake. You know, there's a happy median in there, but I just, we're going down the wrong path. And again, I think it's this one deal where, you know, we're looking for low-hanging fruit, but I think we might be looking at a long spot.
I do want to talk about your workshop. I know it was totally sold out. People were, let's say, angry, but we didn't really have that much room. And again, you didn't have to pay extra to attend the workshops at the expo.
I mean, really, the expo is really set up for the small business guy. What I'm working on, because a lot of people have been asking me, oh, you know, I want to see a Gene Robinson star workshop. We did film it. However, the lighting in there was a little low, and we got Maha's working on that.
And then I'm going to be working on a sponsor. And what I'd like to do is find a sponsor so we can just put it up on the YouTube channel and then also kind of compensate you for, you know, what you do, Gene, maybe throw a little money in the key. I would like to do that because there's a wealth of knowledge there. Also, the RCEAP workshop was really, that was the thing.
The only other thing with that I want to add is this, you know, talking to Gus on the debrief, he was talking about how soon as it got to the regulation part of it, it really got kind of the furthest flying. But, you know, I stepped in there for a few minutes on that one, and people are, you know, I don't care, I'm not saying that me being mean or anything or being negative because I've been at this for so long, I don't care what you feel. What you feel and this common sense thing, this has all been tried before.
This has been going on for years. And just as what you think is the common sense approach doesn't mean that that's what the RCEAP is going to buy in on, obviously. It's been going on for too long. We know that, yes.
We know that. So if you feel like you should be able to fly because you're safe and you did this and I, you know, whatever, that's nice, but that's not the reality of the situation. The reality of the situation is DOG vendors trying to lock you out. And they're the ones with the money that are at the forefront.
They're the ones talking to these guys all the time, telling them what to do. And that's why we have a total disconnect in reality and how can we not rock flying like you're a fiend?
It's all through the, all of the proof is right there. And you just got to kind of dig down a little bit, take a look at it, take an objective look at it, step back and go, how come we're not flying?
How come the Europeans are flying? They like to say it's because we have busier airspace. That's bullpucky. You got guys flying at Heathrow doing infections there.
I'm not buying that. So anyway, off that soapbox. Anything in closing, Gene?
Oh, we've, you know, there is so much going on right now, Patrick. We need to start having a podcast about two or three times a week because it is just going nuts out there as far as the legal actions that's going on. Of course, you know, I'm involved in a little of that and there is so much movement. And I think there's going to be more laws in effect right now.
I mean, everything is going to be changing so rapidly that it's going to be tough to keep up with. So stay tuned is all I can say. I'm done with that. Now we're back on the schedule.
I just couldn't, you know, Ryan, my Ryan C. Carrot model just kind of fell apart while the expo was going. I just had to do it. But we do have some other guests here that want to come on, some high ranking people with different state governments have been wanting to get on here.
I just, my apologies to them. It's just, you know, years were kind of slipping with all the reaction. Anyway, the venue is booked for next year's expo April 29th, 30th, May 1st at the Golden Gate Club on beautiful Presidio in San Francisco. Be there or be square.
Gene, thank you for being on today and we'll try and get this rolling again and beyond next week. What do you say?
Sounds good to me, Patrick. Talk to you then. All right. Have a good day, buddy.
Talk to you soon. Bye.